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Murder Rates Not Rising After All?

The Vera Institue for Justice's Bruce Frederick, commenting on the Marshall Project, questions The New York Times' recent piece saying that murder rates are rising sharply in many U.S. cities and that less aggressive policing in the wake of Michael Brown's killing in Ferguson has "'emboldened criminals.'"

He says that the New York Times' piece included 10 cities with populations ranging between 317,000 and 8 million, but there are 60 cities with populations in that range. Not all of the increases in homicides cited by the Times were statistically reliable. And increases in the number of homicides can "fall within the range of normal year-to-year flucutations" and "do not demonstrate a stable trend."

In conclusion, before arguing that there has been a pervasive increase in homicides, analysis needs to be conducted for several years, Frederick argues.
 

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